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Political issues in Pakistan
New flash highlights all political as well as system security isssusin the past of Pakistan. welcome to the year of the elections with the news flash platform. For the
political stakeholders, 2006 was less about the here and now and more about
what might lie ahead in an election that many are already describing as
historic.The outgoing year saw intense political manoeuvring, shadowy
backchannel contacts to make or break alliances, subtle yet marked realignments
in political groupings, intrigue, deception and betrayal -- all with an eye
towards to all-important general election due in 2007.
The political system's
legitimacy under a military ruler of course remained a pressing issue
throughout the year. But as in the past, any vocal or implied disapproval
didn't seem to bother General Pervaiz Musharraf much, or most members of the
governing coalition for that matter, In fact, by playing his cards well,
General Musharraf continued to move from strength to strength, proving yet
again to both supporters and detractors that he was here to Kay for as long as
it took. All said and done, 2006 felt like dja vu to most political observers
in Pakistan.
Still, it was
an-eventful-year for those obsessed with politics. From security operations to
the 'enforced disappearance' of political and religious activists, and from
privatization to the bill to protect the rights of women, everything was
brought within the ambit of legitimate politicking. .Even the 2005 crash at the
Karachi Stock Exchange and the peopie and factors responsible for it, or the
abortive move to private Pakistan Steel, remained a focal point of debate
throughout the year.
Away from the cities as violence came to
figure ever niore prominently in tribal and religious politics the state
steppvd efforts to curb diverse armed uprising in Balochistan and waziristan. At
the same time the splitin the opposition's rahks over the women rights bill
created a new kind of polarization,throwingup fresh up for political realignment
in th run-up to the next general
election.
Political
and Security issues
Four crucial political and
security issues dominated events in 2006: the rise of Islamic militancy in the
tribal areas and the controversial peace deal between the security forces and
the pro-Taliban militants of North Waziristan; the autonomy-driven armed
insurgency in Balochistan and the death of Nawab Akbar Bugti during a security
operation; the signing in London of a 'charter of democracy by two self-exiled
former prime ministers; and the passage of the Protection of Women Act its
likely impact on future politics. Another key factor, which in some ways served
as a common link between other important
events was General Musharrafs not-so-unexpected decision to remain the
country's president, perhaps with his military uniform on, thus leaving little
room for most political elements to manoeuver. Barring a few exceptions, a
number of issues that cropped up during the last twelve months were also by
products of these developments.
Operation
in Waziristan
The military operation in Waziristan was at
its height 'Allen President George W.Bush visited Islamabad in March. It was
also a high point for President Musharraf. But then Mr. _Bush spoiled the show
when, for unspecified reasons, he blurted out in public that one of the main
reasons for his visit was to make sure that the Pakistani leader was handling
the challenge of terrorism properly. Even though the comments placed President
Musharraf in a somewhat awkward position, and provided fresh opportunity to the
Islamic's opposition to ridicule him, their effects did not last long.
As Pakistani troops took more casualties in the fight against the new emerging breed of North Waziristan's own Taliban force, a few months later the security establishment decided that combat operation was not going anywhere. With the help of interlocutors in the Islamic parties of the NWFP,they brought the tribel militurning the highly fortified bases, and militiants to the negotiating tabel to sign a peace deal. The troops returned to their highly fortified bases,and militants were back controlling the streets of Miramshah and other parts of waziristan.
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| military operation in Waziristan |
The world was shocked, and the Afghan Government accused Islamabad of turning the tribal agency into a formal sanctuary for the Kabul resistance. But even though the ‘deal’ was an indirect admission by the military of its inability to control the tribesmen by force, it apparently did reduce the level of cross boarder infiltration into Afghanistan. To the critics of the 'deal, the rocket attack on an alleged training camp in a Bajaur madressah, and a retaliatory suicide bombing in Dargai that killed many trainee soldiers, was a stark reminder of how bitterly. opposed the two sides were in this war on terror.
In stark contrast to the
peace strategy adopted in the case of the Islamic militants of Waziristan,
General Musharraf had no patience for a political settlement in Balochistan.
Here the armed insurgency was linked in part to the demand for greater
autonomy, and partly to some powerful tribal leaders' opposition to Islamabad's
economic development plans. The Marti and Bugti tribesmen, led by their
respective chiefs, turned the vast region of Kohlu and Dera Bugti into a war
zone. By this time large parts of Balochistan had become out of bounds for
independent journalists and human rights activists., making it extremely
difficult to verify most of the claims of death and destruction made bithe
rivet/ sides.
The efforts of a bipartisan
parliamentary team to end the crisis also proved futile. Even though the government
representatives kept telling the elected members that a political solution
would soon be found, at one stage the security force decided to go for the
kill, and eliminated perhaps the most powerful tribal chief in the province,
Nawab Akbar Bugii. it was one of the most controversial military action in
recent years, and one which further alienated the Baloch people.. Nawab
Bug,ti's death also raised fear of a further increase in armed militancy. But
subsequent events indicated that at least in the initial few months, the level
of violence' had come down.
On the mainstream political
front, perhaps the most significant development was the signing of what came to
be known as the Charter of Democracy. The two former prime ministers, Benazir
Bhutto and Navaz Sharif, vowed to give up the past practice of using
extra-constitutional means, including flirtation with the security
establishment, to derail the democratic process. Within no time other members of
the main opposition alliance, the ARD, endorsed the document. And though the
MMA only gave its tacit support to the Charter, many analysts likened it to the
Magna Carta.
But the reality of Pakistani politics struck
soon. After ignoring earlier attempts by opposition members like Sherry Rehman
to pash a bill to tackle institutional biases against women, the Government
decided to introduce its own watered-down version of a women rights bill. The
MMA was up in arms against the move, and Nawaz Sharif PMLA(N) also saw no
reason to support the bill. However Benazir Bhutto's party, despite its
reservations. went , ahead to back the
ruling coalition on this particular issue. It did create some fissures in the
opposition's ranks but the ARD leader, still managed to keep the alliance
intact. But with the MMA openly denouncing the bill as”Islamic”, it put paid to
earlier moves geared towards forming an all-party united front against General
Musharraf.
The passage of the women rights bill, in a
strange way, threw up new challenges for the already complex politics of the
country. Cracks started to appear in all kinds of political groupings, and the
MMA was no exception. The Islamic alliance initially' took an extreme position,
declaring that all its elected member would resign in protest. But within no time
the biggest party in the alliance, the JUI, took the position that resignations
so close the 2007 elections may prove suicidal. In a bid to save the alliance
from total collapse, the Jamaat-i-Islami and other allies decided to
"postpone'. the resignation move.
Benazir Bhutto narrative
Still, almost overnight, the bill transformed
the next elections into a direct contest between 'moderates' and 'extremists',
the latter being the Islamic parties, and herein lay the biggest opportunity
for realignment. It coincided with reports of high level back channel contacts
aimed at narrowing down differences between Benazir Bhutto and General
Musharraf. As contact crystallized, the two leaders stopped targeting each
other, and the government decided to go for long adjournments in the legal cases
against Ms Bhutto and her spouse. Those indirectly linked to the process say
that even though a broad understanding was reached, some serious differences
remained. For instance, there were issues, like General Musharraf future role,
or the question of Bhutto supporting his candidature as the president for a
second term, with or without uniform. Also of import was the fate of the corruption
cases against the former prime minister, including the one in Switzerland.
Another issue that remained unresolved was of Ms Bhutto's desire to hold public
office. At the same time, there was little understanding' between the two sides
on the fate of another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, who was closely
allied to Bhutto but was still viewed by Musharraf as his principal foe.For his
part, the general was concerned about
the future role Chudhry Shaujaat and his PmL.
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| Benazir Bhutto narrative |
As 2006 came to a close, it became manifestly
clear that a huge trust-deficit still exists between General Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto, and that this mutual lack of faith may have prevented an agreement.
But with all eyes focused on the 2007 elections the two sides were still not
willing to give up, and many analysts believed that the first few months of the
year could see fresh attempts to evolve some kind of understanding regarding a
future setup.
Such moves will, no doubt, trigger other
realignments in the political apparatus. It remains to be seen, however, if all
this jockeying for position produces any tangible movement towards real
democracy, as opposed to a parliamentary system that is supposed to be
representative but is firmly controlled by the military. That will be the real
test in 2007.
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