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Iraq -- and not Pakistan — was a major issue
in the midterm elections in the United States and yet the Change these
elections brought are likely to influence Washington's relation with Islamabad
as well.
In the elections held on, the opposition won
the majority, of the state governorships
and the US House and Senate seats each for the first time since, an election-year
commonly known as the.
Without precedent for the historical backdrop
of the United States, no Democratic occupant lost, nor did Republicans catch
any open House, Senate, or gubernatorial seat recently held by a Democrat.
But changes in US policies towards South Asia
did not come overnight and are not directly linked to the midterm elections
either. US attitude towards India, for instance, began to change soon after the
collapse of the Soviet Union. Former President Bill Clinton, a Democrat and an
India admirer, also played a key role in bringing Washington close to New
Delhi.
But the Democratic victory did help India.
There is a consensus in Washington that the Democrats are generally more
pro-India than the Republicans. Their control over both chambers of the US
Congress is expected to further increase India's influence on Capitol Hill. And
if the Democrats also win the 2008 presidential elections, India will have the
White House as well as Congress on its side. At least that's what Washington's
political pundits say.
Signs of a change in US attitude towards Pakistan
are already visible. Key members of the US establishment –from the Secretary of
State to the national intelligence chief are now backing claims that the
Taliban have set up safe havens along the Pakistan-Afghans border.
In a
recent interview to "Washington Post”, Secretary Condoleezza Rice urged
Pakistan to make "more concerted effort” to prevent the tribal area from
becoming a "safe haven” for terrorists.
In a separate interview to the same newspaper,
Director of National Intelligence John D Negroponte said that the public
authority of Pakistan would before long need to choose what it could do about
the ancestral specialists who have neglected to keep Taliban and Al-Qaeda
warriors from moving to and fro across the line.
In September,
Islamabad signed accords with tribal elder, in North Waziristan in which those
leaders agreed that they would not allow border crossings "for any kind of
militancy Consequently, Pakistani armed force units pulled out from
that space Mr. Negroponte said that the "ancestral specialists are not
satisfying the arrangement" and that to and fro travel by the Taliban and
others "causes significant issues."
On
December, 5, White House spokesman Tony Snow said that the border between
Pakistan and Afghanistan was "an area of concern which needs to be
addressed."
Also in December, America's two top South
Asian experts — Dennis Kux and Karl Inderfurth — urged Islamabad to give up its
search for strategic depth in Afghanistan and instead work with its western
neighbour to defeat the Taliban.
Although in, the same ‘article, published in
the Baltimore Sun, they also urged Kabul to accept the Durand Line as an
international border and remove Islamabad's concerns over an extensive Indian
presence in Afghanistan.
Mr.
Inderfurth is a previous Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs
and Mr. Kux is a previous US representative and writer of a few books on South
Asia.
In
their joint article, they tried to maintain a balance between what some in
Washington describes as Pakistan's interference in Afghanistan's internal
affairs and Islamabad's concerns about developments inside Afghanistan. Others
are not so careful.
Another
area where the change in US policies and attitude is even more obvious is that
of Washington's President Bush and his senior aides have repeatedly said that
the end of the Cold War has also brought a sea change in America's policies
towards South Asia.
India is no more a Soviet ally. It is an important
country in a sensitive region with which Washington seeks close strategic and
friendly ties.
The recently published report of the National
Intelligence council, entitled “.Mapping the Global Future, notes that by 2020
China, India, Brazil and a few others are going to emerge as important global
players.
The National Intelligence Council, which is an
associate body of the CIA, also notes that by 2020 "India's GNP will have
overtaken or be on the threshold of overtaking European economies."
In this emerging world, the United States
needs new allies to ensure that it continues to play "a pivotal role
across the broad range of issues — economic, technological, political, and
militarily' and wants India on its side.
Responding to Pakistan's objections to the
recently concluded Indo-US nuclear deal, US Under-Secretary of State for
Political Affairs Nicholas Burns made it obvious that Washington has no plans
to offer a similar deal to Pakistan.
We've
clarified up and down that this is an interesting arrangement to India in
particular," said Mr. Consumes when a correspondent asked what it would
take to offer Pakistan a comparative understanding.
This
is an exception... we're making a special case for India just, and an exception
to the law for India in particular," he said.
While
long-term interests may have contributed to Washington's decision to promote
India as "an exemption," the midterm elections definitely played a
key role in forcing the Bush administration to reconsider its Iraq policy.
The Democrats used the results for urging the
Bush administration to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq by early 2008.
President
Bush opposes setting a timetable for withdrawal but he also acknowledges that
Americans no longer favour the war as they did in 2003 when he invaded Iraq.
Soon
after the midterm elections, a dispartisan commission called the raq Study Group
also backed the demand for Withdrawal and advised the Bush administration to
engage Iran and Syria as well while looking for a solution to the Iraqi crisis.
President Bush dislikes both the suggestion and sources close to the White House have indicated that when he announces his new Iraq strategy sometime in January, he is going to send more Troops to secure Baghdad.
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